Dashain-Tihar Season: Planning Demand and Stock the Smart Way

For many Nepali distributors the weeks around Dashain and Tihar are the busiest of the year, and also the most dangerous. Demand rises, travel and holidays disrupt deliveries, suppliers close, and shops want goods and credit at the same moment. A business that plans well sells more and finishes with healthy cash. One that does not either runs out of its best SKUs or ends the season with a godown full of festival-pack stock. This guide gives a timeline and the gamitrack tools for each phase. Examples are hypothetical, and you must adjust them to the calendar of the year, since festival dates move.

Eight weeks out: study last season

Open Orders and look at the same weeks in the previous year, if you have that data in the system or your old files. If you migrated from Excel, your sheets are the history; see migrating from Excel and paper books. For each top SKU, note:

• weekly volume before the festival period,
• the peak weeks and by how much they exceeded normal,
• which SKUs surged (gift packs, larger sizes, sweets and snacks, oil, spices, depending on your range),
• when demand fell after the festival.

Do not assume the previous year repeats. Adjust for your growth, new dealers, new SKUs and any scheme that inflated last year's peak. The idea is a range, not a single number.

Seven weeks out: set the plan

For each SKU, write a low, expected and high demand figure for the season. Then compute needed stock using the method in using sales data to plan production: demand, lead time and buffer. Decide:

• which SKUs need production or purchase runs earlier than normal,
• which SKUs must be protected from stock-outs at any cost (usually your top fast movers),
• which SKUs you will deliberately keep lean.

Raise reorder levels on the key SKUs now so the low-stock list starts warning earlier. How to set them is in low-stock alerts and reorder discipline.

Six weeks out: cash and credit

Festival stock locks up cash. Work out how much you will need to produce or buy, and when payments from the market must arrive to fund it. Open Collections and set weekly collection plans with realistic amounts for the weeks before the long holidays, because shops and offices close and collection slows. Set the plan with your accountant and tell your dealers early. See collecting payments on time for approaches.

Decide credit limits for the season. A generous season can turn into a bad-debt problem three months later.

Five weeks out: people and calendar

Update the company holidays and the work week in settings so attendance is calculated correctly. A salesperson on a public holiday should show as holiday, not absent. Plan leave in advance. Fix who is on duty on the eve of festivals and who covers dispatch.

Set Targets for the season: an officer's monthly target may need to reflect festival effects, and dealer targets by fiscal quarter may span the period. Align schemes, if you use any, with the season; see designing dealer schemes that pay for themselves.

Four weeks out: stock in position

Move stock where it will be needed. Use transfers from the main warehouse to regional branches ahead of road disruption; see moving stock between branches and warehouses. Check batches and expiry dates; festival packs with short shelf life should be sequenced so the oldest sells first.

Brief the field team: which SKUs to push, which to avoid promising. Send a broadcast to all or by region with the season plan.

Three weeks out to the festival: daily discipline

This is when the owner's routine matters most. Run the 10-minute morning dashboard routine every day, and add:

Check	Why
Low-stock list per branch	Catch stock-outs before the truck leaves
Orders waiting for dispatch	Delays turn into lost festival sales
Delivery assignments	Drivers are the bottleneck near holidays
Collections against plan	Cash before holidays
Visits & flags	Late-season pressure invites shortcuts

Cut off orders for delivery before the holiday and communicate the date clearly. Orders accepted after the last dispatch date will disappoint customers.

The holiday itself

Plan skeleton coverage: dispatch for emergencies, one person watching orders, a manager reachable. Dealers will still place orders in the app; set expectations on when they will be processed. Record all stock movements on return from the holiday, not in memory later.

Two weeks after: the hangover

Demand drops sharply after the festival, while receivables are due. Work through:

1. Leftover stock. Open Stock and the expiring batches view. Decide on transfers, a clearance scheme or a deliberate wait. Do not let festival packs age in the corner.
2. Collections. Chase hard. Many payments are delayed after holidays.
3. Returns. Process them promptly into the right branch.
4. Review. Compare forecast with actual by SKU and write down the three biggest misses and their causes. These notes are the most valuable input for next year.

Lessons to write down every year

Create a short note after each season, owned by one person. Capture: the SKUs that ran out and on which day, the branch that was starved while another overflowed, the date after which deliveries became unreliable, the dealers who paid late, and the schemes that worked. Keep the note where the next planner will find it, and read it first when you begin planning eight weeks out. Over a few years it becomes your most accurate forecasting tool, and it costs only an hour of writing.

If you are new to seasonal planning, start small: choose five SKUs, plan them carefully, and review the result. Success with five builds the confidence and the data to plan fifty.

Season checklist

When	Task
8 weeks out	Study last season; low, expected, high demand
7 weeks out	Production and purchase plan; raise reorder levels
6 weeks out	Cash plan; collection plan; credit limits
5 weeks out	Holidays, duty roster, targets
4 weeks out	Position stock; brief the field
3 weeks out	Daily review, order cut-off date
After	Clear leftovers, collect, review forecast

Next steps

Everything above uses the standard workspace: orders, stock, collections and targets. See the plans on the pricing page, and use the Help centre for holiday and calendar setup.